Battle of the microblogging platforms: Can Threads disrupt Twitter?

Are you on Threads yet?

The new social media platform Meta gained a staggering 100 million users in less than a week. 

Taking the focus away from photos and videos, the microblogging app is designed for sharing text updates and joining conversations. 

And, if you think it looks and sounds suspiciously similar to another certain leading platform, you’re not the only one who’s noticed. 

Twitter (recently rebranded as ‘X’) CEO Elon Musk is apparently unhappy about Thread’s stratospheric rise, sending out a series of angry Tweets about his new rival.

Many assumed (or in Musk’s case, hoped) the platform would burn bright and fizzle out quickly, just like Clubhouse and Vine before it.

However, the app seems to have decent staying power so far. Sure, engagement dropped by almost 50%, but tens of millions are still using the platform daily and it’s attracting a steady stream of influencers and celebrities. 

So, does Threads present a genuine threat to Twitter? Or, will Meta struggle to steal away users from the OG? The answer comes down to two key concepts: The first mover advantage, and network effects.

What is the first mover advantage?

Put simply, this is the competitive advantage a company gains from being the first to bring a product or service to market. This usually leads to strong brand recognition, which further leads to customer loyalty. For example, Apple was the first mover in the smartphone industry with the iPhone. 

Twitter launched in 2006, making it the first (and for a long time, only) text-based broadcasting app. As the first mover in this space, it not only defined the industry standard but also achieved ‘network’ effects through its legions of loyal users. 

What are network effects?

As we’ve written about previously, network effects are when the value of a product or service increases as more people use it. 

Most communication tools rely heavily on network effects. After all, your inbox would look pretty empty if nobody else in the world had an email address (although, some would argue that might be nice!) Their value lies in the volume of people who use it, and the same applies to social media.

When a platform gains significant network effects, a phenomenon called switching costs occurs. These are the psychological, financial, or practical costs a consumer incurs when they change from one service provider to another.

Switching costs are the reason it might prove difficult for Threads to disrupt Twitter. With over 450 million monthly users, many people have been loyal to Twitter for years and have built up their own personal brand, following, and repository of content. They’ve already invested significant time and effort, and it would be fairly taxing to have to start fresh on another platform.

But, here’s the thing. Meta actually has its own strong network effects in place, too. Instagram has over 1.6 billion users, and they were extremely clever in allowing people to bring their usernames and followers over to Threads (no switching costs required!) That’s why when they launched the new platform, they were able to hit the insane record of over 10 million users in one hour. 

In a way, Meta benefits from the first-mover advantage, too. Their first platform, Facebook, actually launched in 2004 — two years before Twitter. They’ve been able to use their legacy and enormous influence to destabilize successful platforms before. Just look at what happened to Snapchat when Instagram introduced Story mode!

So, can they repeat history with Twitter? It likely comes down to whether they’re able to convince their current network to stay engaged with microblogging long-term, more so than trying to steal Twitter’s customers. 

Why does this matter for designers?

Apart from putting bets on who would win a boxing match between Musk and Zuckerberg, here’s what designers can take away from the Threads vs. Twitter battle.

 

  • Do you work for the first mover? Set standards. As trailblazers, designers have the opportunity to set industry standards, just like Twitter did in the microblogging space. This includes designing key features and user experiences that become the norm. This can make your product the 'go-to', shaping how users perceive and use such platforms. This is super creative work, but expect many misses and a few hits. And prepare your leadership for a bumpy journey.

 

  • Looking to compete with the first mover? Gain a second mover advantage, by learning from the first mover's designs, then innovating and improving upon them. Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of first movers, and use insights to design a more appealing or efficient user experience. What is it that users dislike about the first mover? How can we leverage the familiarity that users have with first movers, and build something even better?

 

Maja ZilnikComment